Trade War

After a bright start, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were coming off their highs, while the Dow and Russell lost their earlier gains. The loss of momentum comes after the S&P enjoyed one of its strongest days so far this year in the previous session. Clearly, investors are fearful about further volatility ahead and are happy to book profit, as the major indices test key resistance areas.

The confusion regarding tariffs means the near-term EUR/USD outlook remains murky, but we maintain a bullish view on the pair in light of Germany’s historic fiscal shift approved last week and the recent mixed US data.

Despite a weaker start to the new week, the EUR/USD forecast remains bullish in our view in light for Germany’s historic spending shift that was approved last week.

After easing a little at the end of last week, gold prices bounced back in the first half of Monday’s session as the US dollar weakened against a basket of foreign currencies.

The GBP/USD forecast will be in focus again with UK CPI and the Fed’s favourite inflation measure to come in the week ahead, along with global PMIs.

USD/CAD has seen price action tighten over the past six weeks, even as the tariff topic has kept volatility flowing through several headlines.

Wall Street staged a respectable bounce following Powell’s somewhat dovish tone, but—as we’ve seen in recent sessions, the gains could not hold for too long.

Oil prices retreated to $66 amid growing concerns over global economic growth, rising inventory levels, and oversupply risks, further pressured by OPEC’s April supply plans. With the (FOMC) meeting on the horizon, market participants are closely watching for signals on the Fed’s policy stance and its implications for oil demand.

Gold burst to the $3,000 per ounce threshold last week – a landmark moment for the precious metal. After Friday’s breakout, a modest retreat followed as traders pocketed profits, but gold remains perched near its highs as Monday’s European session heads to the close.

In the US, weakening data and trade uncertainty has undermined the dollar, while over in Europe, attention has been on fiscal stimulus measures and defence spending commitments from Germany. Against this backdrop, it is difficult to be bearish on the EUR/USD forecast.

GBPUSD, Dow Forecast: Following last week’s steep movements driven by trade war risks, markets closed on a cautious rebound. Press conferences from the Fed, BOJ, BOE, and SNB will be key focal points this week, influencing broader market sentiment.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices remain above the $66 mark, supported by Iranian oil sanctions, escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, and broader market rebound sentiment. However, concerns over the trade war and oversupply risks continue to fuel a broader bearish outlook.

The price of gold hit the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time ever on Friday, before easing a tad on profit taking around that anticipated level.

The US dollar forecast remains modestly bearish following last week’s big drop, driven largely by the rallying EUR/USD pair on the back of the Germany’s big spending plans.

EURUSD, Nasdaq Outlook: Trade war risks between the U.S. and EU are escalating. Gold surged near $3,000, market indices remained weak, and the euro dropped back below 1.09.

Volatility remains the name of the game, making it difficult for both the bulls and bears to predict the Nasdaq 100 forecast. Recent sessions have seen efforts to establish a base, with tech megacaps staging a strong recovery yesterday. Nvidia surged 6.4%, climbing back above $115, Tesla rallied 7.6%, and AMD regained the critical $100 level with a 4.1% gain.

USDJPY, Gold Forecast: While the US Dollar Index experiences a slight rebound amid oversold conditions, Gold hesitates to rally above $2,950. Could a reversal be on the horizon?