US Tech 100

The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 just suffered their worst quarter in three years. Given it occurred just after record high, it begs the question as to whether bulls are in for another rough quarter.

It was Wall Street that faced the worst of Friday’s sell-off. Notably, the dollar—traditionally a haven during market turmoil—failed to stage a rally, instead tumbling as investors sought refuge in gold, the yen, and the euro. The trend suggests that confidence in the US economy is beginning to fray, with Trump’s protectionist stance raising concerns over the long-term stability of America’s growth engine.

Much now hinges on Trump’s rhetoric—should he soften his tone, markets might find some relief. If not, the risk of prolonged volatility looms large, particularly as April 2 approaches—a date dubbed “liberation day” by Trump. So, the near-term Nasdaq 100 forecast remains uncertain and dependant on Trump’s rhetoric.

Volatility remains the name of the game, making it difficult for both the bulls and bears to predict the Nasdaq 100 forecast. Recent sessions have seen efforts to establish a base, with tech megacaps staging a strong recovery yesterday. Nvidia surged 6.4%, climbing back above $115, Tesla rallied 7.6%, and AMD regained the critical $100 level with a 4.1% gain.

While the past four weeks of bearish price action on Wall Street has surprised some, asset managers have raising their bets against Nasdaq 100 futures since January.

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this edition, we will get technical on the Nasdaq 100.

After a roller-coaster week for US stock markets, Friday saw the major indices bounced sharply off their lows to end the day on a positive note after the Nasdaq 100 had earlier dropped to the official threshold of a correction (10% from the recent high).

The question now is whether dip-buyers will make a return, as they have in recent sessions, and provide a boost to the Nasdaq 100 outlook by lifting it from a key support area. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both at pivotal junctures, testing their respective 200-day moving averages alongside key tech names such as Amazon, Oracle, Tesla, and MicroStrategy.

The Nasdaq 100 forecast remains bullish for now. Sentiment is positive mainly because the technology sector is continuing to remain the gift that keeps on giving. The latest wave of optimism has been fuelled by advancements in artificial intelligence and solid corporate earnings.

Investors are still cautious despite reports that Trump will be considering a more gradual ramp-up in trade tariffs in order to avert inflation spikes. So, more price action is needed to confirm a low has been hit, as this could just turn out to be an oversold recovery – especially given the recent bearish price action across several US indices. Thus, it is too early to turn positive again on the Nasdaq 100 outlook.

With not much in the way of macro factors to watch until the nonfarm payrolls report is released, I will provide some in-depth technical Nasdaq 100 analysis first before looking at some macro influences that could shape the markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Over the past year, the concentration into top market cap stocks – which aligns to tech – has pushed the Nasdaq 100 to Dow ratio well above the Dot-com peak

Despite the current gains, a correction may be necessary before the market can sustain a significant upward trajectory, but so far, the technical Nasdaq 100 analysis is still bullish and we haven’t seen a reversal stick.

NVDA has “beat” analyst estimates for earnings in seven of the last eight quarters by an overall average of 15%, rising an average of more than 9% in response to those results - what should we expect this time?

US index futures edged higher in early European trading, but after a strong two-day rally, momentum might slow ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. With a 25-basis-point rate cut fully priced in, the focus will shift to the Fed's tone on future cuts.

The “Magnificent Seven” are projected to report an 18.1% year-over-year earnings increase, while the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies anticipate minimal growth of just 0.1% - what does that mean for the Nasdaq 100?

Betting against the market has proved to be very costly this year, with all sorts of dips being bought fairly quickly. But is this another such scenario or is it different this time around – especially with US presidential election now just three weeks away?