Matt Simpson

The relative calm seen on Wall Street these past two weeks came to an abrupt end on Wednesday in anticipation of Trump's auto tariffs. The Nasdaq led the way lower, with S&P 500 and ASX futures being dragged along for the ride.

Consumer sentiment fell at its fastest pace in three years, and to its lowest level since January 2021 according to the Conference Board. And chances are, weak figures are likely to appear in Friday’s University of Michigan’s (UOM) report. I take a closer look at both.

AUD/USD has made a mild attempt to move higher this week, yet higher timeframes continue to suggest a move towards 62c. And that could see GBP/AUD have a crack at the 2020 highs over the near term, though I'm also keeping an eye out for a cycle top and pullback.

The anticipated bounce on the US dollar index is finally underway, Wall Street indices enjoyed their best day in just over a week and the Japanese yen was broadly lower as the week kicked off with a risk-on tone.

The culling of EUR/USD shorts on the futures market was the fastest weekly pace since the pandemic, which also coincided with futures traders effectively flipping to net-short USD for the first time since October. Bears also short-covered NZD/USD shorts at their fastest pace since December 2011, while predictably chasing gold prices higher as we suggested last week.

Whether the RBA cut in Q2 or Q3 could come down to the quarterly inflation figures released on the 30th April. But AUD/USD traders will of course keep a close eye on the AU monthly inflation report and US core PCE figures released this week.